Time Series Analysis, Forecasting, and Machine Learning

Python for LSTMs, ARIMA, Deep Learning, AI, Support Vector Regression, +More Applied to Time Series Forecasting

4.77 (2132 reviews)
Udemy
platform
English
language
Data Science
category
Time Series Analysis, Forecasting, and Machine Learning
8,098
students
23.5 hours
content
Apr 2024
last update
$74.99
regular price

What you will learn

ETS and Exponential Smoothing Models

Holt's Linear Trend Model and Holt-Winters

Autoregressive and Moving Average Models (ARIMA)

Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA), and SARIMAX

Auto ARIMA

The statsmodels Python library

The pmdarima Python library

Machine learning for time series forecasting

Deep learning (ANNs, CNNs, RNNs, and LSTMs) for time series forecasting

Tensorflow 2 for predicting stock prices and returns

Vector autoregression (VAR) and vector moving average (VMA) models (VARMA)

AWS Forecast (Amazon's time series forecasting service)

FB Prophet (Facebook's time series library)

Modeling and forecasting financial time series

GARCH (volatility modeling)

Why take this course?

Hello friends!

Welcome to Time Series Analysis, Forecasting, and Machine Learning in Python.

Time Series Analysis has become an especially important field in recent years.

  • With inflation on the rise, many are turning to the stock market and cryptocurrencies in order to ensure their savings do not lose their value.

  • COVID-19 has shown us how forecasting is an essential tool for driving public health decisions.

  • Businesses are becoming increasingly efficient, forecasting inventory and operational needs ahead of time.


Let me cut to the chase. This is not your average Time Series Analysis course. This course covers modern developments such as deep learning, time series classification (which can drive user insights from smartphone data, or read your thoughts from electrical activity in the brain), and more.

We will cover techniques such as:

  • ETS and Exponential Smoothing

  • Holt's Linear Trend Model

  • Holt-Winters Model

  • ARIMA, SARIMA, SARIMAX, and Auto ARIMA

  • ACF and PACF

  • Vector Autoregression and Moving Average Models (VAR, VMA, VARMA)

  • Machine Learning Models (including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines, and Random Forests)

  • Deep Learning Models (Artificial Neural Networks, Convolutional Neural Networks, and Recurrent Neural Networks)

  • GRUs and LSTMs for Time Series Forecasting

We will cover applications such as:

  • Time series forecasting of sales data

  • Time series forecasting of stock prices and stock returns

  • Time series classification of smartphone data to predict user behavior

The VIP version of the course will cover even more exciting topics, such as:

  • AWS Forecast (Amazon's state-of-the-art low-code forecasting API)

  • GARCH (financial volatility modeling)

  • FB Prophet (Facebook's time series library)

So what are you waiting for? Signup now to get lifetime access, a certificate of completion you can show off on your LinkedIn profile, and the skills to use the latest time series analysis techniques that you cannot learn anywhere else.

Thanks for reading, and I'll see you in class!


UNIQUE FEATURES

  • Every line of code explained in detail - email me any time if you disagree

  • No wasted time "typing" on the keyboard like other courses - let's be honest, nobody can really write code worth learning about in just 20 minutes from scratch

  • Not afraid of university-level math - get important details about algorithms that other courses leave out

Content

Welcome

Introduction and Outline
Where to Get the Code
Warmup (Optional)

Time Series Basics

Time Series Basics Section Introduction
What is a Time Series?
Modeling vs. Predicting
Why Do We Care About Shapes?
Types of Tasks
Power, Log, and Box-Cox Transformations
Power, Log, and Box-Cox Transformations in Code
Forecasting Metrics
Financial Time Series Primer
Price Simulations in Code
Random Walks and the Random Walk Hypothesis
The Naive Forecast and the Importance of Baselines
Naive Forecast and Forecasting Metrics in Code
Time Series Basics Section Summary
Suggestion Box

Exponential Smoothing and ETS Methods

Exponential Smoothing Section Introduction
Exponential Smoothing Intuition for Beginners
SMA Theory
SMA Code
EWMA Theory
EWMA Code
SES Theory
SES Code
Holt's Linear Trend Model (Theory)
Holt's Linear Trend Model (Code)
Holt-Winters (Theory)
Holt-Winters (Code)
Walk-Forward Validation
Walk-Forward Validation in Code
Application: Sales Data
Application: Stock Predictions
SMA Application: COVID-19 Counting
SMA Application: Algorithmic Trading
Exponential Smoothing Section Summary

ARIMA

ARIMA Section Introduction
Autoregressive Models - AR(p)
Moving Average Models - MA(q)
ARIMA
ARIMA in Code
Stationarity
Stationarity in Code
ACF (Autocorrelation Function)
PACF (Partial Autocorrelation Funtion)
ACF and PACF in Code (pt 1)
ACF and PACF in Code (pt 2)
Auto ARIMA and SARIMAX
Model Selection, AIC and BIC
Auto ARIMA in Code
Auto ARIMA in Code (Stocks)
ACF and PACF for Stock Returns
Auto ARIMA in Code (Sales Data)
How to Forecast with ARIMA
ARIMA Section Summary

Machine Learning Methods

Machine Learning Section Introduction
Supervised Machine Learning: Classification and Regression
Autoregressive Machine Learning Models
Machine Learning Algorithms: Linear Regression
Machine Learning Algorithms: Logistic Regression
Machine Learning Algorithms: Support Vector Machines
Machine Learning Algorithms: Random Forest
Extrapolation and Stock Prices
Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting in Code (pt 1)
Forecasting with Differencing
Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting in Code (pt 2)
Application: Sales Data
Application: Predicting Stock Prices and Returns
Application: Predicting Stock Movements
Machine Learning Section Summary

Deep Learning: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)

Artificial Neural Networks: Section Introduction
The Neuron
Forward Propagation
The Geometrical Picture
Activation Functions
Multiclass Classification
ANN Code Preparation
Feedforward ANN for Time Series Forecasting Code
Human Activity Recognition Dataset
Human Activity Recognition: Code Preparation
Human Activity Recognition: Data Exploration
Human Activity Recognition: Multi-Input ANN
Human Activity Recognition: Feature-Based Model
Human Activity Recognition: Combined Model
How Does a Neural Network "Learn"?
Artificial Neural Networks: Section Summary

VIP: AWS Forecast

AWS Forecast Section Introduction
Data Model
Creating an IAM Role
Code pt 1 (Getting and Transforming the Data)
Code pt 2 (Uploading the data to S3)
Code pt 3 (Building your Model)
Code pt 4 (Generating and Evaluating the Forecast)
AWS Forecast Exercise
AWS Forecast Section Summary

Extras

Colab Notebooks

Setting Up Your Environment FAQ

Windows-Focused Environment Setup
How to install Numpy, Scipy, Matplotlib, Pandas, IPython, Theano, and TensorFlow

Extra Help With Python Coding for Beginners FAQ

How to Code by Yourself (part 1)
How to Code by Yourself (part 2)
Proof that using Jupyter Notebook is the same as not using it

Effective Learning Strategies for Machine Learning FAQ

How to Succeed in this Course (Long Version)
Is this for Beginners or Experts? Academic or Practical? Fast or slow-paced?
Machine Learning and AI Prerequisite Roadmap (pt 1)
Machine Learning and AI Prerequisite Roadmap (pt 2)

Appendix / FAQ Finale

What is the Appendix?
BONUS: Where to get discount coupons and FREE deep learning material

Screenshots

Time Series Analysis, Forecasting, and Machine Learning - Screenshot_01Time Series Analysis, Forecasting, and Machine Learning - Screenshot_02Time Series Analysis, Forecasting, and Machine Learning - Screenshot_03Time Series Analysis, Forecasting, and Machine Learning - Screenshot_04

Reviews

Tapan
July 29, 2023
Amazing course. He explains everything he does and why and makes you think of different solutions. Learnt a lot. Money well spent.
Daryl
July 6, 2023
Lazy programmer is an excellent instructor. He covers everything in depth. The course is very well structured and has lots of projects.
Irlon
July 1, 2023
The instructor is EXTREMELY knowledgeable. But so am I. I have an engineering degree. I've traded for years. I've used machine learning models like XGBoost with stock price and crypto price data. I've carefully feature-engineered those datasets (to avoid look-ahead bias) for use in those models. I came to this course because I very specifically wanted to understand machine learning methods for time-series data. I wanted to understand how exponential smoothing methods, ARIMA etc. are more suited (if they are more suited) to financial time series data. But so far, the instructor talks about topics, especially ARIMA, as if I've already been exposed to it, or understood it. So, I either have to go and do separate research on topics, or sometimes skip to future lessons to see where he is heading or how the concepts are used in practice, and then come back to the current lesson. That is very annoying. Also, in this course and others, he goes way too far with a whole lot of Math before properly explaining where he is going with everything. I aced university Math as an engineer, so I'm not scared of Math. But as one of many examples, he goes into all kinds of Math about CNNs, and I still don't understand what the point of the Math is or how CNNs work! And this is coming from someone who understands the calculus behind back-propagation. So, whether it is CNNs, GARCH, or topics from his other courses, I find that I have to first go and get an intuitive understanding of the topics/concepts, and then come back to his lessons. And in many of his courses he will say that you have to take many machine-learning courses to really understand the topic, but I feel that this is an excuse. It is a waste of my time. My suggestion for this instructor is that when he starts a new topic, to begin with the end in mind, an overall summary, and a simplistic explanation/introduction of the topic. Then, once foundations are solidified, go into more detail about the Math and code, at each step reminding the audience of where he is going with each lecture, and what the relevance of the content in each lecture is. But know this, if you are already somewhat familiar with and already have a good intuitive feel for the topics, this instructor's explanations are excellent! He knows what he is talking about. I think he might be so good that he has forgotten what it is like for newbies in this space.
Benjamin
June 30, 2023
Lazy Programmer is great at teaching concepts that most people would find too difficult, that's why you won't find them in other courses. This course has taught me so much and I can't wait to see what else I'll learn along the way! This course delivers great value, it's affordable, and it makes learning enjoyable.
Marco
June 25, 2023
A very rare example of a very good course that is held online. Not the usual banal and basic contents that are perhaps understandable by everyone but do not teach you anything, but a real course about time series and both its theoretical foundations and practical applications. Super-recommended!
Sagarika
June 11, 2023
A truly great course! I learnt many things about ARIMA, holt-winters, LSTMs, and stock price predictions. Love it and will continue to study time series. :)
Jeff
May 12, 2023
It is a really good course. It helped strengthen my background in machine learning and how to use statsmodels. The only downside is that the instructor has a separate course on finance, so if you want to learn everything, you'll have to take both courses.
Javier
May 9, 2023
I've been working with data science, and I do have an engineering background. This is one of the first time I want to leave a rating, because the level of the course is outstanding. I truly recommend this.
Brian
May 1, 2023
very clear. flowed well. like how you explain the theory and then actually code encouraging us to use our own examples and code. true, unlike universities and detailed enough with the coding to make it useful. I plan to take more courses.
Fortunato
April 30, 2023
The course is very hands-on and the quality of the provided material shows that the instructor has put in a lot of effort. I am appalled that some other students believe that the "slides" need to be provided. The course already includes videos and notebooks: what is the point in having the slides of the corresponding videos as well? Overall, I did enjoy the entire course, although I felt that the AWS forecast part was a bit boring (not because of the presentation, but rather the inherent ugliness of the AWS API) and I wish a future VIP section will include anomaly detection for time series (which I guess could be done easily with Prophet or any other model providing confidence intervals). Finally, it's nice to see how much focus the instructor puts on the need to avoid "Deep Learning at all costs", and rather shows how powerful non-DL statistical models can be in the context of time-series prediction. Thank you! I will now buy the course about financial engineering!
Vinit
April 26, 2023
The Lazy programmer faculty is charging me extra when I asked for the slides.. Slides should be shared free of cost and attached with the lecture ideally. It does not make sense to pay extra for just the slides when I have already paid a huge amount for the course
Timon
April 24, 2023
All really nicely explained! Great course! Only a final big ML-Model (real-life-example) with a larger data-set + hyper.tuning, etc would be a cherry-on-top. =D
Tuan
April 17, 2023
Some concept and method for develop models with statistic model approach (ARIMA) and machine learning approach were mixup during Section 5. Lack of explaining when to use which metrics to evaluate the model performance.
Ogunfowora
March 13, 2023
It is a very detailed, intuitive, and hands-on course. The instructor explains the underlying concepts and basics in detail which makes it easy to build upon, simply put he lays a strong foundation. He also provides codes and explains them in detail, not every course provides the codes. The exercises in the course, if you actually do them force you to think through the problems and make you a better data scientist. It is a well-rounded course and I am not disappointed. If you take the course, you will get what I mean. The course is simply amazing.
Mahesh
March 13, 2023
Amazing course, would highly recommend for anyone looking to get into time series analysis. This is a great intro and by the end of it, if you do all the work, you will feel confident in your skills, I started knowing nothing.

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4030112
udemy ID
5/6/2021
course created date
6/15/2021
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