Statistical Thinking and Cognitive Bias: The Fundamentals

An Introduction to Statistics, Cognitive Bias, and the Art of Thinking Clearly.

4.25 (44 reviews)
Udemy
platform
English
language
Social Science
category
Statistical Thinking and Cognitive Bias: The Fundamentals
2,250
students
3.5 hours
content
Aug 2019
last update
$34.99
regular price

What you will learn

Basic statistics applied to our world, work, and everyday life

Basic probability applied to our world, work, and everyday life - including Bayes' theorem

New insights from behavioral economics, specifically how our mental biases can lead to misinterpreting statistics

The ability to make more informed decisions

The ability to think critically about statistics

A clearer, global worldview

Why take this course?

Do you want to see the world more clearly? Learn to think like a statistician and question the numbers all around you? Make better decisions at work, when investing, and in life? Then you are in the right place.

This course is not a regular introduction to statistics. There will be very little math so you won’t be asked to complete lots of mathematical problem sets. The focus of the course will be on the intuition and practical application of statistics in making better decisions and judgments. We will explore the fundamental ideas and concepts of statistics but with with everyday examples, answering questions such as: if correlation does not equal causation, then what does? have humans really wiped out 60 percent of animals? and do 9 out of 10 dentists actually recommend this toothpaste?

You will learn how not to be fooled by data visualizations, and how an understanding of probability can change the way you view everything from prosecuting criminals to financial crises.

The course has two sections diving into the world of cognitive bias and the work of Hans Rosling on Factfulness thinking. Our inherent mental biases can affect the way we perceive and interact with the statistics we encounter every day; whether in the news, on social media, or in advertisements. The goal of this section is to learn how to spot these logical fallacies so we can keep them at bay and interpret the world around us more objectively.

In the penultimate section, we shall encounter the tricky world of inference, causation, and the trusty work-horse of statistics; regression analysis. This section will explore everything from buying apples, to p-hacking, and to what caused physician John Ioannidis to proclaim that "most published research findings are false".

The final section will look at prediction and forecasting; exploring why predictions fail, how they can succeed, and if perfect prediction will ever be possible (or indeed desirable).

With a world of information now at our fingertips, being able to think statistically is an essential skill for all those living in the 21st century. Indeed as Herbert George Wells said, “statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write” – and that day has come.

Content

Introduction

What is Statistics and Statistical Thinking?
How to Construct a Statistic
Wrap-up

The Uses and Misuses of Statistics 1: Sampling

The Basics of Sampling
Selection Bias
Sample Size
Dubious Definitions and Questionable Categories
If at First You Don't Succeed... Multiple Sampling
EXERCISE
Wrap-up

The Uses and Misuses of Statistics 2: Descriptive Statistics

What Are Descriptive Statistics?
Beware of the Average
Beware of the Point Estimate: Don’t Ignore Dispersion
Problematic Percentages
Ignoring Scale: The Base Rate Fallacy
Ignoring Context: Stats do Not Exist in a Vacuum
Units of Measurement and False Comparisons
Wrap-up
Descriptive Statistics: Test Yourself!

Cheating Charts: How Not to be Fooled by Data Visualizations

Common Types of Charts
Audacious Axis
Misleading Graphics
Wrap-up

What are the Chances? The Uses and Misuses of Probability

Probability Basics
Expected Value/Loss
Black Swans and Fat Tails
Wiggle Room: The Case of the Baltimore Stockbroker
Regression to the Mean
Clustering
Faulty Thinking About Joint Probabilities
Introducing Reverend Bayes
Wrap-up
Probability: Test Yourself!

The Uses and Misuses of Statistics 3: Inference and Regression

What are Inferential Statistics?
Linear Thinking: A Precautionary Note
Correlation Doesn't Equal Causation
Statistical Significance: A Basic Overview
Problematic P–Values
Publication Bias and the Replication Crisis
Regression Analysis: A Brief Introduction
Regression Pitfalls and Biases
Cause and Effect
Wrap-up
Inferential Statistics: Test Yourself!

Cognitive Bias and Statistics 1

What is Cognitive Bias?
Confirmation Bias
Conjunction Fallacy
Authority Bias
Exponentials
Framing Bias
Wrap-up
Cognitive Bias: Test Yourself!

Cognitive Bias and Statistics 2: Hans Rosling, Factfulness and Our Ten Instincts

Hans Rosling, Factfulness and Our Ten Instincts
Gap Instinct
Negativity Instinct
Straight Line Instinct
Fear Instinct
Size Instinct
Generalization Instinct
Destiny Instinct
Single Perspective Instinct
Blame Instinct
Urgency Instinct
Wrap-up

BONUS/TASTER: The Art and Science of Prediction

Prediction and Forecasting: An Overview

Conclusion, Next Steps, and Congratulations!

Conclusion, Next Steps, and Congratulations!

Screenshots

Statistical Thinking and Cognitive Bias: The Fundamentals - Screenshot_01Statistical Thinking and Cognitive Bias: The Fundamentals - Screenshot_02Statistical Thinking and Cognitive Bias: The Fundamentals - Screenshot_03Statistical Thinking and Cognitive Bias: The Fundamentals - Screenshot_04

Our review

--- **Overall Course Review** The **Global course rating** stands at a commendable **4.25/5**, with all recent reviews pointing towards a highly engaging and informative course on Statistical Thinking. The majority of the feedback is overwhelmingly positive, highlighting the course's ability to demystify statistics and its impact on enhancing understanding and critical analysis in the field of data. **Pros:** - **Informative Content**: The course provides clear and concise explanations that make complex statistical concepts understandable. - **Engaging Instruction**: The instructor's enthusiastic delivery and use of bite-sized lectures with exercises facilitate effective learning. - **Useful Resources**: Linked resources for further reading/research are a valuable addition to the course material, encouraging students to delve deeper into topics. - **Constructive Feedback**: The instructor's practice of explaining where mistakes were made in quizzes helps learners identify areas for improvement. - **Impactful Learning**: Many users have expressed that the course has opened their eyes to how statistics are used and misused, indicating a significant educational impact. - **Positive Community Interaction**: Users are actively engaging with the content, as evidenced by additional resources being found post-review. **Cons:** - **Typographical Error**: The first video contains a spelling error with "statistics" incorrectly written as "statitistics." - **Animation Sound**: A jarring sound during the end-of-lecture animations was noted as distracting and disruptive to the learning experience. - **Pacing**: Some users found the course's pacing to be a bit off, with a suggestion to choose either an intro or outro animation of about 5 seconds for each lecture to avoid repetition. - **Speaking Speed**: The instructor speaks quickly and appears somewhat nervous. However, this does not detract significantly from the course's overall quality, as users are hopeful that the instructor will become more comfortable over time. - **Resource Availability**: A few provided resources were highly praised, but some users felt there could be more, along with suggestions for further study to enhance the learning experience. **Additional Note:** One user reported an error in their initial review after discovering more resources within the course, which serves as a reminder for learners to explore all available content before concluding their assessment of the course's value. --- **Conclusion:** This course on Statistical Thinking is highly recommended for anyone looking to gain a solid understanding of statistics. With its clear instruction and additional resources, it stands out as an invaluable tool for improving critical thinking skills related to data analysis. While there are some areas for improvement, such as correcting typographical errors and optimizing the use of animations, these do not significantly detract from the overall positive experience provided by the course. It is anticipated that with minor adjustments, this course will continue to be a significant contribution to the field of education on statistics.

Coupons

DateDiscountStatus
7/6/2019100% OFF
expired
7/22/2019100% OFF
expired

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2270132
udemy ID
3/13/2019
course created date
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